What Rivas Will has called, and what happened next.

A public prediction log. Every dated signal Rivas Will has written down — on a prospect, a buyer, a sub-vertical, or a pattern — gets a line here with its current status. The point is accountability: if the call was wrong, the scorecard says so, and the next update reframes the brief rather than quietly editing the history. If the call was right, the date proves it was written before the event, not after.

Statuses:

• open — the signal is live, no confirming or disconfirming event yet.
• hit — the predicted event happened within the window.
• early — a confirming proof point landed but the main event hasn't.
• missed — the window closed without the predicted event.
• reframed — the original call was wrong or too narrow; the brief has been rewritten.

Company-level calls

Hit

• Hippo Manager Software — exit confirmed. Called exit-signal 5/5 on 2026-04-10 (vet-tech, 14-year founder tenure, Cultivation Capital 7.5 years into hold). Confirmed 2026-04-14: acquired by Shepherd Veterinary Software on 1 March 2025 (PitchBook). brief →

Early confirmation

• Constellation Software — the machine did not pause for succession. Called on 2026-04-17 when Mark Leonard resigned as President (25 Sep 2025). Proof point 2026-04-14: Juniper/Vela (a Constellation operating group) took a majority stake in DerbySoft — the first announced CSU-family deal after the succession news. brief →
• Arcadea Group — permanent-capital founder-succession pattern. Called on 2026-04-10: Arcadea buys through internal-succession, not sponsor-installed CEOs. Proof point 2026-04-09: JAIX Logistics Software — founder Heather Thornton retiring after 40+ years, COO Paul Stock promoted internally. brief →
• Topicus — PEMS is operational, not theoretical. Called on 2026-04-10 / refined 2026-04-17. Proof point: Topicus deployed roughly €775M of capital across traditional acquisitions + the Asseco Poland two-stage PEMS (9.99% Jan 2025 + 14.84% Oct 2025) under a February 2025 shareholders' agreement with the Góral family. brief →

Open

• Actionstep — 2026–2027 exit window. Exit-signal 4/5 since 2026-04-10. Serent Capital growth investment 30 Sep 2020; professional CEO (Early Stephens) installed 19 June 2022; fifth tuck-in (Traced, AI time-capture) closed 29 January 2026. Serent's last two exits ran 6-year and 7-year holds; Actionstep is at 5.5. brief →
• Tribute Technology — late-cycle exit prep. Exit-signal elevated on 2026-04-18. Carlyle installed Craig Greenseid as CEO on 15 May 2025 — Carlyle operating executive, not a career software operator. Same playbook Carlyle ran at Davisware before the ECI exit in 2025. brief →
• Curve Dental — exit-signal 4/5. Called 2026-04-12, re-verified 2026-04-17 with dated null on Signals 3 and 4 (no VP Corp Dev posting, no Dorey "next chapter" language). Structural thesis still live: Brightree exit team reassembled under David Cormack (5/11 leaders are Brightree alumni, $800M exit to ResMed in 2016), M&A-capable CFO from Parthenon-EY, product cadence dense in Q1 2026. brief →
• Smokeball — exit-signal 3/5. Called 2026-04-10, re-verified 2026-04-17. Thomson Reuters strategic partnership announced 25 March 2026 (CoCounsel integration). Either partner-to-acquire precursor or partner-to-stay-independent move; six to twelve months will tell. brief →
• TherapyNotes — structural-pressure signal 2/5. Called 2026-04-16. Only unfunded independent left in behavioral-health EHR — every peer is PE-owned (Vista, KKR, TPG/GI, Quad-C, Level Equity, Sheridan). Founder-CEO tenure 16 years. No discrete hiring or language trigger yet. brief →
• ProjectTeam — founder-tenure signal 3/5. Called 2026-04-12. Founder Ty Witmer ~66 years old, 15-year tenure, bootstrapped, FedRAMP-authorized. brief →
• ClearDent — signal 2/5. Called 2026-04-13. Bootstrapped since 2002 (Burnaby BC), ~$12M ARR estimate. No active event, tracking as a long-dated founder-tenure candidate. brief →
• DSN Software — signal 2/5. Called 2026-04-10. Vertica Capital growth investment Sept 2024; PE in build phase, exit window mechanically ~2027–2031. brief →
• Owner Insite — signal 2/5. Called 2026-04-10. 23-year founder tenure, family business. Likely below the $2M ARR mandate floor; tracked for pattern completeness. brief →
• Passare — signal 1/5. Called 2026-04-18. DIG-owned since 2015; funeral-home software sub-vertical now dominated by Tribute / Carlyle roll-up. brief →

Reframed

• Actionstep — CEO identity. Earlier updates had framed Ted Jordan as "22-year founder-CEO" based on stale Crunchbase labelling. Corrected 2026-04-16: Actionstep appointed Early Stephens as Global CEO on 19 June 2022; Jordan transitioned to Founder & Chairman the same day. The underlying exit-signal call held — and sharpened — because a growth-equity sponsor installing a professional CEO 21 months into the hold is a more specific exit-clock signal than founder-age. Promoted as a standing rule in Methodology: primary source wins over third-party databases on leadership facts.
• Curve Dental — Matt Dorey CEO status. Similar pattern, caught on 2026-04-17 — Crunchbase still labels Dorey "Founder & CEO" although Curve's own leadership page had removed him. Dave Cormack is the current Chair/CEO. Signal strength held at 4/5; brief body and sources corrected.
• Smokeball — Hunter Steele CEO tenure. Caught on 2026-04-17. Third-party databases implied a 13-year CEO tenure; Smokeball's own Australia leadership page dates his CEO appointment to 2021, coincident with the $30M round. Signal strength held at 3/5; brief reframed.

Pattern-level calls

Open

• Every comp is PE-owned except one. Called 2026-04-16 as the strongest free-only exit signal pattern on the roster. First applied to TherapyNotes in behavioral-health EHR; to be re-tested on the next sub-vertical discover.
• Vista pays 6–9x ARR for sub-$50M bootstrapped vertical SaaS — not the 12x its larger deals attract. A standing Rivas Will calibration since 2026-04-08. Tracked as a sector-level position; will be marked hit or reframed the first time a disclosed Vista Endeavor transaction at this band lands in the memos.
• A "VP Corporate Development" posting at a company that has never had one is the cleanest single-signal exit prediction in vertical SaaS. A standing Rivas Will calibration. Embedded in Signal 3 of the methodology; every live prospect brief records Signal-3 status with a dated null when the ATS is clean.

If you think a call is wrong, dated wrong, or missing a confirming or disconfirming event, write to Rivas. Corrections ship in the next update.